For weeks, the Department of Government Performance, led by Elon Musk, the world’s richest person and a unique state staff, has conducted a campaign to fundamentally downsize the federal government and many agency employees. The U.S. Agency for International Development ( USAID), which is in charge of massive databases with sensitive information about all Americans, has raised serious legal and constitutional issues as a result of Musky’s actions, including the freezing of federal grants, offering employees a pay raise through Sept. 30.
filed thus far, with the majority of them ruling against Trump, while the majority of these controversial cases were dismissed on standing more than qualities. Both President Trump and Elon Musk, both of whom have run businesses while facing numerous lawsuits, have not been alarmed by this. More legal issues are expected, some good reaching the Supreme Court.
According to the Unitary Executive principle, which calls for greater government control, the long-term goal is to increase national power. Since the Reagan management, liberals have been pushing for this, and Trump sees why Musk is acting in this way. This also explains why USAID came in second place. Many Americans overestimate how much money is spent on international support, which is largely unhappy. So, closing the company would likely avoid open backlash, with the effect felt mainly by farmers—more on that later.
In theory, cutting government budgets is widely accepted, but if Trump and Musk succeed in large-scale reduction and overcome legal problems, they may discover that cutting state may backfire on them. They run the risk of dumping the girl with the water and destroying vital functions by using an axe rather than a knife. In its eagerness, DOGE is likely to destroy services the people supports, making the government less powerful. Major government failures are socially fatal, typically more so than constitutional arguments, as evidenced by history. When both occur, they can lead to major political issues for both the party in power and the leader.
What counts as a big state loss? The Carter government’s mishandled recovery of the Iran hostages, the Bush administration’s mishandling of Hurricane Katrina, the Obama government’s health care web crashes that delayed Obamacare sign-ups, the Biden administration’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Trump administration’s inadequate reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic, and many more. These are failures no president —no matter how skilled a communicator—can spin or deflect. When the public is aware that something critical went horribly wrong, criticizing predecessors or changing the subject won’t work.
If Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency plans survive legal challenges, several major failures could follow—each landing squarely on the president’s shoulders. As President Harry Truman famously said,” The buck stops here”.
Changes to the distribution of veterans ‘ and social security benefits
The federal payment system, which DOGE briefly controlled before a judge intervened, oversees Social Security payments, among other critical functions. Disruptions to this system could have serious consequences. Plenty. DOGE has been using AI systems to explore these databases, but AI is prone to hallucinations. It is frightful to use untested or poorly designed AI on government data sets, according to Brookings scholar Darrell West, who cautions against doing so. Unlike the chaos at Twitter when Musk assumed control, changes to federal programs would have serious real-world effects. A brief outage on X may be inconvenient, but delays or errors in Social Security, Medicaid, or veterans ‘ benefits payments could be devastating—especially for the roughly 40 % of retired Americans over 60 who, as of 03, relied solely on Social Security for income while working fewer than 30 hours per week.
Potential delays in tax refund processing
The IRS database could be hacked down even further, with even more severe consequences. In 2023, 69 % of Americans received tax refunds from the IRS, with an average refund of$ 2, 812. Many taxpayers intentionally over-withhold and rely on their refunds each spring for major purchases, like a new refrigerator. Now, imagine if, due to DOGE’s actions, refunds were delayed until November 2025 instead of arriving in the spring and summer. Or worse—if errors in newly written code caused refunds to be incorrect. Taxpayers would be upset over errors or delays in something as important as refunds, where the stakes are high and expectations are high.
Increased tax evasion that results in lower federal taxes
Currently, the IRS employs more than half of the Treasury Department’s workforce. Tax experts have long argued that the IRS needs more employees, not fewer. The” tax gap,” or the estimated difference between what the IRS collects and what taxpayers actually owe, is estimated to be$ 428 billion, with the majority of it coming from underreporting and a smaller portion from non-filing. The Department of Government Efficiency’s goal of saving$ 1 trillion to$ 2 trillion could be significantly aided by increasing tax enforcement alone.
In reality, the opposite is more likely. According to my Brookings coworker Vanessa Williamson,” Cutting the IRS is a top Republican priority.” With fewer employees, there is a lower risk of being audited, but there is a greater incentive to underreport. That’s not a sustainable way to reduce the deficit.
Increased risk of dying from food-borne illnesses
The Food and Drug Administration ( FDA ) uses a” traceback system” to track foodborne illnesses. The FDA explains that “investigators trace food that sick people report eating all the way back to a farm or production facility.” Finding commonalities in the supply chains of foods consumed by sick people aids in identifying a potential source of the outbreak. Millions of Americans are affected by food-borne diseases each year, leading to thousands of deaths, particularly among the elderly and those with other health conditions. The traceback process is laborious, involving the FDA, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and state and local health departments. Widespread cuts could significantly impair the ability of the government to pinpoint the source of these outbreaks.
A fragile agricultural economy that is already under strain could become even more vulnerable.
DOGE runs the risk of further deteriorating the already fragile farm economy in its rush to shut down USAID. According to the Washington Post,” American farms…supply about 41 % of the food aid that the agency, working with the U. S. Department of Agriculture, sends around the world each year,  , to a 2021 report by the Congressional Research Service. In 2020, the U. S. government bought$ 2.1 billion in food aid from American farmers”.
DOGE released a list of on February 3 that it claims could fall under the categories of waste and abuse. However, the total amount of targeted grants with specific numbers only adds up to roughly$ 12.1 million. Could these grants be withdrawn without compromising the$ 2.1 billion that American farmers receive and give to those in need? The way that DOGE treats both the good and the bad has a clear impact on both red and blue states.
The CIA or FBI’s hiring of intelligence personnel could raise the risk of domestic terrorist attacks.
The CIA sent an to the Office of Personnel Management ( OPM) on February 3 in a surprising move, listing individuals hired over the past two years. Many of these hires were geared toward boosting China’s growing national security concern, which was becoming more and more important. OPM became the first national security agency to do so after the email’s potential disclosure of clandestine personnel led to its use of it to offer buyouts.
Reducing the CIA or FBI workforce in an era of asymmetric warfare, when threats to U. S. security can emerge from places most Americans have never heard of, may be, as intelligence expert put it,” the Trump administration’s most dangerous misstep”. One of the most significant intelligence mistakes in U.S. history was the failure to prevent September 11; downsizing the CIA could lead to a similar failure.
This list of potential failures covers nearly every government agency. Musk the likelihood of mistakes, saying no one can be perfect, and promises to fix problems quickly. But government operations are not like the tech industry —errors in issuing payments, tracking diseases, or ensuring aviation safety can have serious, sometimes life-threatening consequences. If DOGE indiscriminately slashes budgets and fires essential workers, it risks disaster. The effects of significant failures could hurt Trump’s poll numbers and stifle GOP support.